Why the championship is in Lewis’ hands…

Four men. One coveted Formula One world title. Only one can win it, but who?

Abu Dhabi is going to be an truly enthralling race. The practice sessions will become interesting for the first time ever and the whole world will be gripped from the second qualifying starts. However, the story will not be the same for the men racing for the crown; stress, fear, anxiety, nerves will all be setting in very soon for all of them. Never in recent years has a title been so closely fought between such amazing drivers. There is no doubt anywhere in the universe that the four men contending for the title are possibly four of the best Formula One drivers ever. All have stunned the world with their exceptional talent. But lets get down to the business. Four men and one title, so who is it going to be:

FERNANDO ALONSO

Why he can win it:

He has the points advantage going into the weekend and has momentun too, with a recent string of good finishes. He knows how to win a championship – he’s done it twice already – and he crucially has a teammate to back him up; a definite advantage over the Red Bulls. He also has the most experience of the contending drivers, having raced for the longest and his Ferrari is the perfect balance between the fast-cornering Red Bull and the fast straightline speed of the McLarens.

Why he can’t win:

He has the pressure on him to win it – he is expected to win it, but the Spaniard finished 14th at last years Abu Dhabi GP – his joint lowest classification for the season (other than his retirements) and he has no experience with taking the corners at high speeds, which twinned with the factor of predicted rain could make for a nasty spin. Alonso also has the oldest engines of all the contenders, and we noticed a drop in performance last week, so his performance is going to be even worse this week. And although Alonso may have a teammate to back him up, it is crucial to point out this is Massas first outing at the Yas Marinas circuit as this time last year he was recovering from his injury sustained at the Hungarian GP, so he will be virtually useless.

MARK WEBBER

Why he can win it:

He has show constant determination and prevelance throughout the season, and has often been regarded as the second driver, noting it himself on may occasions, but has proved he is certainly not the second fiddle in this team. As a driver, he is reasonably experience, but the oldest and seeminly wisest, making intelligent decisions and always keeping a cool head. His car is setting the pace and the sharp corners should make for a big advantage to the Red Bulls as potential overtaking opportunites. He has the points advantage over his teammate and is only eight points off Fernando. In addition to this, he finished 2nd at Abu Dhabi last year.

Why he can’t win it:

He has a teammate who has refused to say he will back him up if he cannot win, he has an old engine (although not a old as Fernandos engine) and his engine reliability is poor (although much better then that of his teammate). He is not regarded as the quick driver and has never won or been in contention for a title before, so this will be entirely new teritory for him. He has also struggled in the rain and a few weeks ago had a shock crash in the wet which put Fernando at the top.

SEBASTIAN VETTEL

Why he can win it:

The wonder kid with (usually) untouchable qualifying speed and a car with as much talent as he does. Has performed suprisingly well in the rain and most expect him to win it. He won the Abu Dhabi GP last year.

Why he can’t win it:

He lacks momentum unlike Alonso and Webber and has had many, many engine problems and very poor reliability – his engines are extremely unreliable and unpredictable. He has been well known to crack under pressure – we saw that at last years title winning race in Brazil where he qualified 18th. He lacks experience being the youngest of the contenders and his driving style has negociated the loss of many points this season. He has admitted himself that he is a very impatient driver, which mixed with the pressure could prove fatal to his title fight. He also has no team-mate to back him up, as unlike Mark, even if he were leading the race, he could not have mark in second to defend his position as Mark would still have more points then him, so whereas Mark has a chance at having Vettel back him up if he is in first, Vettel does not have the same opportunity and will be totally alone in the race.

LEWIS HAMILTON

Why he can win it: He has a superb teammate to back him up – Jenson finished 3rd here last year so will give hima deefinite advantage as Jenson is very willing to help him and they get on well as teammates and people, unline the Ferraris and Red Bulls where there is clear friction that has been seen many times this season. Lewis has the best engine out of the lot and performs well in the rain. He scored a fantastic pole at last years Abu Dhabi GP showing he also has the pace at the circuit, all he needs to do is finish on top of the podium. He has the flexibility to do more practice runs and get used to the track, and composition of the Yas Marinas circuit should suit him very well as it is virtually straights or corners. He is a popular driver and is more liekly to have other drivers favor him for the title and let him pass over the other contenders and his attitude of learning from his mistakes is very prevalant. He is also the msot recent fo the contenders to win a world title and is most familiar with his car, which may or may not prove vital. He needs for Alonso to finish out of the points, but judging by Alguersuari’s refusal to let him by at the last Brazil GP and almost causing a crash between them, as well as the fact that Alguersuari qualified above Alonso last year at abu Dhabi, he could prove a vital cog for Lewis. The predicted rain at Abu Dhabi could be an interesting factor as the race has never been done in the rain, together with it being a not well known track could give him the advantage too.

Why he cannot win it:

He lacks the points and Alonso must not finish. His car has also been subject to having problems with the aerodynamical setup.

So statistically, Hamilton is in the best position, but then Alonso has the momentum, with the Red Bulls stuck in the middle. Expect an exciting race. Murray Walker once said “Anything can happen in Formula One, and it usually does”.

My predictions: Webber will probabaly win it, but don’t rule out Lewis. Also If you find a spare quid down the back of a sofa or in your pocket, Lewis has some very nice odds at the bookies, because the way things look on paper, he is in a pretty good position to win it.

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